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  Fantasy Football Scouts


Draft Day Tales

4for4.com Exclusive
by Andy Rioux
Posted 08/31/07


While the state of California may not be the paradise it used to be, fantasy owners everywhere spent the off-season daydreaming about the sunny skies of San Diego. A handful might have actually been thinking about Sea World or the world famous San Diego Zoo, but most thoughts centered around Qualcomm Stadium and the running back who wears #21.

Oh if I can just get the first pick! LaDanian Tomlinson will be mine!

I participate in three Missouri-based leagues that I am very fond of. One is a keeper league, and unfortunately I don't have Tomlinson in that one, but in late July one of my two re-draft leagues held a selection lottery and I landed the first pick! Needless to say, it was time to insert my Kool and the Gang CD and punch up the song Celebration!

The fiesta was still in full force when I ventured out to Buffalo Wild Wings for the lottery for my other re-draft league. The next thing I knew, fantasy karma had turned on me, and I ended up with the last pick in the first round. No Celebration this time. More like "I Can't Go for That" by Hall and Oates. But I had no choice and I realized I had to start focusing on how to build a winner from the bottom of the draft.

I also realized that I had never been confronted with two such extreme scenarios in the same year, and I've been playing fantasy football since 1990. It would be an educational experience, and one worth sharing.


DRAFTING FIRST
We'll start with the league where I would be getting LT. This is a 12 team league with a 16 round draft. On a weekly basis, you are required to play 1 QB, 1 RB, 1 position that can be either a RB or WR, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DT, and 1 "offensive player" who can play any position except kicker. In other words, you could field as many as 3 RBs or 4 WRs.

I personally feel that the running back crop is deeper in this day and age because of all of the committees. Yes, it stinks that there are fewer sure-fire studs, but at the same time there are lots of functional guys out there. On the other hand, the WR position in my opinion is shaky below the top rung.

So I established a plan where I would try and snag two top receivers after getting LT and go for runners a little later. Most of the runners would be gone by the end of the second round, and I figured some of the elite wide receivers would be history as well. I was hoping that at least someone like Reggie Wayne would fall to me. Here now is a round-by-round summary:

Round 1: LT.

Round 2: Chad Johnson, WR, Cincinnati - Johnson was the first of two picks in a row. I was surprised that Ocho Cinco was still on the board. Johnson is a safe fantasy starter who is a superstar if he becomes more consistent. He only had a few big games last season and needs to spread out his quality performances.

Round 3: Torry Holt, WR, St. Louis - I know his knee is shaky, but I was shocked that he was still available. If he can manage to stay healthy, I've got one of the best. It's a gamble, but provided Torry doesn't end up in traction I accomplished my goal of landing two of the best receivers.

Round 4: Jamal Lewis, RB, Cleveland - As a Cleveland fan, I'm still getting used to having this former arch enemy on the team. Lewis obviously isn't the player he was in Baltimore, but he's a perfect example of a guy who should be available in the fourth or fifth round who might produce just as good as a back taken in the second round.

Round 5: Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota - This is a classic case of swinging for the fences. There's no doubt Peterson has the potential to be a superstar. But he's also in a time share at the moment with Chester Taylor, who is no slouch. I'm banking on Peterson doing enough to be viable and the fact he may take on the entire load as the season progresses.

Round 6: Julius Jones, RB, Dallas - Jones is another example of a running back you can get if you target elite wide receivers early. He's not a major touchdown threat, which is a downer, but he's a good yardage back and he should cross the stripe more under Wade Phillips. I now have three decent backs who can compliment LT.

Round 7: Jake Delhomme, QB, Carolina - This was easily my shakiest pick in the first half of the draft. I probably should have targeted quarterbacks in either round 4 or 5, but I didn't expect the major run that happened. A youngster like Leinart or Cutler would have been perfect, but they were snagged before I had a chance to grab them. Instead, I'm hoping for a Delhomme revival. It might happen.

Round 8: Jerricho Cotchery, WR, New York Jets - Cotchery isn't in the class of Holt or CJ, but he should be adequate when I need him.

Round 9: Denver Defense - The Broncos usually seem to show up among the top 10 defenses in most fantasy scouting reports, and I think they are set for a good season. Any team that gets to play weak offenses in Oakland and Kansas City twice should be set up for success.

Round 10: J.P. Losman, QB, Buffalo - With Delhomme having the potential to be shaky, I felt I needed to grab a youngster with some potential. Buffalo's schedule is a downer, but Losman should be a nice starter in some of his easier games.

Round 11: Dallas Clark, TE, Indianapolis - I had an opportunity to grab Alge Crumpler earlier, but passed. Clark is a lower-tier attraction in the Indianapolis passing circus, but when it comes down to choosing between a tight end with Peyton Manning and a tight end with Joey Harrington.I'm glad I got Dallas.

Round 12: Brandon Marshall, WR, Denver - Surprisingly, this was the pick that elicited the most disappointment from other owners. Two of them lamented that they were about to take Marshall. Nice to know other guys think he has the potential I do.

Round 13: Jason Campbell, QB, Washington - Instead of an uncertain two-headed monster at QB, I decided to go for an uncertain three-headed monster. Campbell does have some promise, but suffice it to say I'm not going to be a QB driven team.

Round 14: Neil Rackers, K, Arizona - I'm only drafting one, and Neil plays for a good offense. But he needs to improve his accuracy.

Round 15: Green Bay Defense - The Pack has some nice playmakers in A.J Hawk, Al Harris, Charles Woodson, and Aaron Kampman. They also play Washington when Denver is on bye, which shouldn't be a bad match-up.

Round 16: David Martin, TE, Miami - Supposedly new Miami head coach Cam Cameron wants to make Martin into the South Florida version of Antonio Gates. Seeing Gates in Miami would be as odd as seeing Crockett and Tubbs in San Diego. He's my Mr. Irrelevant, perhaps a deep sleeper, and hopefully an adequate bye week fill-in. Stay healthy Dallas Clark!

Although my QB situation is dicey, I was generally pleased with the rest of the squad. If LT is LT, Torry stays healthy and the other runners contribute, I should be fine as long as the QBs can hang in there. It will likely be the guy with the easiest opponent every week.


DRAFTING LAST
Now it's time to analyze the other team. This is only a 10 team league, so picking last isn't as bad as it would have been in the 12 team one. This draft is 18 rounds and the starting lineups consist of 10 players. You have to play at least 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 K, and 1 DT. You play six total players at WR and RB, with the minimum of 2 at each position. Owners have the option of playing 2 RBs and 4 WRs, 3 RBs and 3 WRs, and if you are lucky enough, 4 RBs and 2 WRs. It offers a lot of flexibility for bye weeks and gives owners the opportunity to mold passing teams, running teams, or balanced squads.

I was relatively sure a decent first round caliber running back would slide, but would two? I vowed to consider taking two straight running backs even at the low position of 10, but I didn't want to miss out on an elite receiver. I decided to go with a plan that would entail taking one RB and one WR with my first two picks. Here we go:

Round 1: Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia - Rudi Johnson, Laurence Maroney, and Reggie Bush were among the other top options, but I felt Westbrook was the best bet. Yes, he might not be the touchdown threat Rudi is, and Bush and Maroney have a ton of upside, but there's no doubt Westbrook has proven himself to be an elite force.

Round 2: Steve Smith, WR, Carolina - I could have easily grabbed one of the other backs and felt safe at the position. But given my current philosophy, I wanted to make sure I grabbed a franchise player before someone else did. Smith is healthy going into the season and should be poised to reclaim his rightful place at the top of the fantasy wideout charts.

Round 3: Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona - I was stunned to see Fitz still on the board at the end of the third round. Fitz isn't the big-play threat Smith is, but both men have the potential to catch over 10 touchdowns. I've got my mandatory two and no worries other than depth.

Round 4: Donovan McNabb, QB, Philadelphia - There were some other elite receivers I could have grabbed, like Javon Walker, but I was determined to land the best quarterback remaining. I guess I had learned a valuable lesson from the other draft. McNabb is an injury risk, but there's no doubt he's a top gun. Already having Westbrook, I was a little worried on loading up too much with Eagles, but this was more a matter of taking the best QB on the board. And given that Westbrook often scores more on receiving touchdowns than rushing ones, this is an intriguing combo. Go Eagles Go! While I was happy to grab Donovan, I knew I couldn't wait too long to grab a decent backup.

Round 5: Deuce McAllister, RB, New Orleans - Yes, Reggie Bush is going to become even more prominent this season, but I'm very happy with this pick. I believe The Deuce will still be on the loose in the Big Easy, and he could easily put up numbers along the lines of 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns. While it would have been nice to add another back early, at this point I'm thrilled to have two elite receivers, two good backs, and a nice signal caller.

Round 6: Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota - Here I go again, swinging for the fences, even though I no longer like baseball. You know I like Peterson's upside, and in a league where you can play up to 4 RBs, he'll get some starts.

Round 7: Julius Jones, RB, Dallas - Time for another instant replay.

Round 8: Chris Cooley, TE, Washington - I didn't glance around the room when I made this pick, but I'm sure some folks were surprised. The only tight ends taken had been Gonzalez and Gates. Big names like Shockey and Heap were on the board, as well as younger upside guys like Kellen Winslow and Vernon Davis. But I actually think Cooley will emerge as the next best tight end behind Gates. Gonzalez is getting older and has a bad supporting cast, while Shockey seems to always be battling nagging injuries and Heap is no longer the only option in the Baltimore passing game. Maybe I'm insane, or maybe I'm onto something. I could have waited on a tight end, but I felt we were at a point in the draft where adding depth at WR could be done later.

Round 9: Matt Leinart, QB, Arizona - I love Leinart's potential, and if something happens to Donovan, I have a solid starter in the bullpen. Plus he would form a combination with Fitzgerald.

Round 10: Joey Galloway, WR, Tampa Bay - Obviously Galloway's age is a concern, but he put up credible numbers last year with numerous inept quarterbacks. Like Galloway, Jeff Garcia is no youngster, but the new Tampa Bay QB should breathe some life into a dismal offense. That should keep Galloway viable for one more campaign.

Round 11: Brandon Jackson, RB, Green Bay - I was very surprised to see him on the board this late. After all, many pundits have him leading the Pack ground attack, especially with Vernand Morency's injury concerns. Jackson hasn't looked very good in the pre-season, but at this stage and with the depth I have at the position, I don't have to force him into the lineup.

Round 12: Mark Clayton, WR, Baltimore - Clayton isn't a superstar, but I was also surprised he lasted into the second tier of the draft. He's had some injury concerns of late, but he should be a solid player.

Round 13: Denver Defense - I'll again offer a reminder that they play Oakland and Kansas City twice!

Round 14: Brandon Marshall, WR, Denver - Can we get a chorus of Rocky Mountain High?

Round 15: Owen Daniels, TE, Houston - Being from Houston originally, and still having friends in the area, I hear more about the Texans than I ever want to hear. So I first heard about Daniels last season even before he made a minor fantasy splash. New Houston quarterback Matt Schaub knows how valuable a tight end can be after playing with Alge Crumpler, so it's not out of the question that Daniels can increase his Q rating in 2007.

Round 16: Stephen Gostkowski, K, New England - His shaky outing last weekend did not rattle my faith in a kicker who I believe will be a sleeper. Geez, did I just really call a kicker a sleeper? If Gostkowki struggles during the season, I guess I'll just pick up another sleeper on the waiver wire.

Round 17: Anthony Thomas, RB, Buffalo - Buffalo coach Dick Jauron has a fondness for the A-Train, and he should see some looks if Marshawn Lynch doesn't catch on as quickly as expected or gets hurt. The A-Train might not make it through the entire season, but he's worth a look for a little while.

Round 18: Wes Welker, WR, New England - New England's receivers are always a crapshoot. The acquisition of Welker was lost in the shuffle amid the hoopla surrounding Donte Stallworth and Randy Moss, but he's a talented player who could easily find his niche among the bigger names. If not, he'll be an easy cut when I need to add a kicker and defense for bye weeks.


Concluding Chapter
Now it's time to spin a concluding chapter to these draft day tales. Hopefully in reviewing my drafts you'll see some patterns emerging that you can use when you make your picks. No matter where you draft, if you beat other owners to the punch in securing wide receivers you can still get some decent backs later. The shocking thing is that I actually like my non-LT team a little bit more. The QB situation is much better with Leinart and McNabb. Both teams have two top notch receivers, but I like Steve Smith the most out of all of them, and he's on the non-LT team. There is more overall talent on the non-LT team (10-team vs. 12-team draft). Some of that can be attributed to it being a smaller league, but I also know I was more open-minded going into that draft because I didn't know what would be available at 10th overall.

In other words, drafting last in the first round isn't the albatross many would consider it to be, especially in 10-team leagues. But would I opt for picking tenth when I could get LT first? Not a chance!


 


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